Punting perspective: Nuneaton
At some point – hopefully in the not-too-distant future – the Skrill Premier table will be easier to read.
At the minute it needs, at the very least, a decent grasp of mathematics to make a decent judgement of who should where in the table to determine their chances of success come the back end of April.
Take Grimsby for example. Losers in midweek at Barnet and down in eighth place, yet with as many as five games in hand over Nuneaton, the Town’s opponents on Saturday. The Mariners’ points-per-game (which we’ll abbreviate to PPG from now on) average is 1.75 – the third best in the division. Braintree, meanwhile, haven’t played since we were all wrapping Christmas presents and singing Silent Night. The Iron would be 10th based on their PPG average. Instead they currently sit just three places above the relegation zone. Someone pass the calculator.
The point we’re trying to make, though, is don’t be fooled by the sides who have played more than others. Why? Well Nuneaton might have played three more games than the Hatters and five more than Grimsby, but their PPG average – 1.61 – places them happily among the Conference’s top five, just one place below their actual position of fourth in the table. That, therefore, makes the Town’s Saturday’s trip to Liberty Way pretty darn difficult.
With that in mind is a best price 17/20 on the Hatters to win good value? No, unless you have powers to see into the future which, sadly for most of us, isn’t the case; and don’t forget we’ve always maintained that backing the Town away from home at odds on is a road to a poor house.
But here’s the but. Nuneaton have won 12 of their 15 matches by the odd goal…but the Town have won 11 of their 19 victories by more than the odd goal – including a 3-0 win at Kenilworth Road against Boro last month in which Andre Gray scored a hat-trick.
So where does that leave us? In an ideal world a few quid on 2-0 Town at 9/1 would do us just fine but in their current vein the Hatters will probably go and annoy us by scoring a few more to leave us crying into our correct score betting slips. So stay safe and back the Hatters to win giving Boro a goal head-start at 23/10.