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BEAT THE BOOKIES

Posted on: Thu 29 Apr 2010

Hold onto your hats.

Get used to that phrase because it's highly likely that it will be used plenty of times over the next week as the Hatters embark on their Play-Off expedition with a two-legged semi-final against York City tonight.

It's been 13 years since the Town's one and only appearance in the end-of-season competition and that didn't end well at all. So much so this will be the one and only time we're going to mention it.

Many people refer to the Play-Offs as a lottery and with that phrase ringing around odds compilers' heads, most bookmakers have priced accordingly for the opening two first legs that kick-off this evening.

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The Hatters of course have been paired with York City, who finished in fifth place in the BSP after enjoying a fine season, a huge improvement on their 17th place finish last term.

In Richard Brodie the Minstermen have the division's top goalscorer and have a home record that shows just two defeats from 22 matches.

That's is daunting in itself but the Hatters ended the regular season like an express train and have been frightening teams to death with their goalscoring exploits.

Of the last 14 fixtures the Town have won 10 and drawn four.

At one point Richard Money's side strung nine successive victories together, scoring goals for fun and beat Champions Stevenage in thier own back yard.

Keeping our regular eye on the odds of bet365, the opening market was undecided.

Bet365 went 6/4 for both York and Luton wins for tonight's first leg at Bootham Crescent.

We're not sure what's changed but the Town have been backed into favouritism and are 8/5 (1.6/1) to do the business against Martin Foyle's Minstermen who are 7/4 (1.75/1).

Play-Off games are often very cagey affairs. Neither side wants to give anything away, especially in the first leg.

The draw will be a big focal point in the betting and it's 11/5 (2.2/1) that the first leg ends all square.

Our tipping so far this season has landed us some nice priced winners and we're naturally keen to keep the run going in the Play-Offs.

We fancy 0-0 at 15/2. However, back no goalscorer in the first goalscorer market to protect your money. If a team wins 1-0 courtesy of an own goal you won't lose out if you back 0-0 on the correct score.

The Hatters have been short price favourites to win a lot of matches this season, especially towards the end of the campaign, so it makes a change to see some tasty prices back for this crucial game.

If you don't fancy 0-0, what about the Town to sneak a first leg advantage and win 1-0? bet365 go 13/2 that happens.

And if that is the case, who is going to score the Hatters' goal? How about the returning Claude Gnakpa to score first at 17/2? £20 would win £170 profit. Not bad going.

We'll round that up into a scorecast which returns at 45/1. Go, on stick a couple of quid on!

Click here for all the match odds - you'll find the markets under the 'Soccer' section in the left-hand sports menu.

Remember betting through Hattersbet and bet365 earns much-needed revenue for the club so what are you waiting for?

Recommendation: No goalscorer (15/2)

Can you spot where the value lies? Or even better how about sending in your tips? Football and betting is all based on opinion so if you have a particular tip that you want to share get in touch. Email andrew.barringer@lutontown.co.uk.

Click here to sign up with bet365 and check out their fantastic football service.

* All the prices correct as of 12.30pm Thursday 29th April. Prices subject to fluctuation.

Latest promotion prices:

Luton 11/8, Oxford 13/5, Rushden 7/2, York 9/2.

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